Dawn broke over the Gulf to the thunder of explosions in Tehran, as Israel launched a pre-emptive wave of air and missile strikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. The strikes, which Israel described as a defensive measure, marked a dramatic escalation in regional tensions and edged the Middle East dangerously close to open warfare.
What Happened: Targets and Casualties
At approximately 04:00 local time, multiple explosions were reported in north-east Tehran, followed by confirmed strikes in Natanz, Khondab, and other sensitive military zones. According to Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, the operation aimed to neutralize threats before Iran could launch its own attack. In the aftermath, Iranian media confirmed the deaths of IRGC commander-in-chief Maj Gen Hossein Salami, Iranian armed forces chief Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri, and two senior nuclear scientists. Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reported critically wounded.
Iran Vows Retaliation as Gulf Neighbours React
In a strongly worded statement, Ayatollah Khamenei promised “severe punishment” for Israel, warning of a “bitter and painful fate.” In immediate response, both Iran and Iraq closed their airspace, causing Gulf carriers to reroute flights and leading to longer travel times between Asia and Europe.
Economic Fallout: Oil Spikes and Hormuz on Alert
Global energy markets reacted swiftly. Brent crude surged past $102 per barrel, prompting emergency consultations among GCC energy ministers. Shipping agents in Dubai and Muscat reported increasing war-risk premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway responsible for over 20% of global oil shipments.
Operation Rising Lion: Inside Israel’s Attack Strategy
Israel officially named the assault “Operation Rising Lion,” revealing that dozens of fighter jets executed precision strikes on nuclear enrichment facilities and missile production sites. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the mission had crippled Iran’s nuclear weaponisation capabilities, especially in Natanz—long suspected of being at the centre of Iran’s bomb development program. Sources indicated Mossad had spent months mapping underground targets.
Washington’s Position: Watching Without Participating
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the United States was not operationally involved in the strike. However, American embassies across the Gulf, including in Kuwait and Bahrain, instructed staff to shelter in place. President Donald Trump, still pursuing a revised nuclear deal with Tehran, stated the attack had been anticipated and warned Iran against targeting U.S. interests.
Nuclear Fallout and Regional Concerns
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed a hit on the Natanz nuclear site and is currently monitoring radiation levels. Gulf nations with nuclear energy programs, such as the UAE (Barakah) and Saudi Arabia (planned facilities), are closely monitoring the developments with growing concern. Iran’s announcement earlier this week of a third enrichment plant had already intensified fears of a regional nuclear arms race.
What the Gulf Should Watch Next
| Risk | Impact on GCC | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Iranian retaliation | Possible drone/missile attacks on Israeli-linked assets in GCC | 24–72 hours |
| Oil market volatility | Revenue spikes vs. budgeting challenges | Immediate |
| Maritime shipping disruption | Higher war-risk insurance premiums for Gulf crude exports | 1–2 weeks |
| Diplomacy and mediation | Oman, Qatar, UAE may open back-channel de-escalation efforts | 1 week+ |
Quick Take: Gulf at a Crossroads
“Operation Rising Lion” may have crippled elements of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but it has opened the door to a dangerous cycle of retaliation. With airspace closures, surging oil prices, and the Strait of Hormuz under increased threat, Gulf nations are working urgently to de-escalate the conflict—even as they reinforce their own defences. As events unfold, the Gulf stands at a critical crossroads between diplomacy and destabilisation.
