When back‑channel talks between Washington and Tehran scheduled for Sunday in Oman were called off at the last minute, few in the Gulf were surprised. What began months ago as shadowy assassinations and pinpoint air‑strikes has burst into the open, with salvoes of ballistic missiles now slamming into Haifa and Khuzestan alike. The rapid escalation is claiming civilian lives on both sides and dragging the wider Middle East ever closer to a regional inferno.
From Covert Skirmishes to Open War
- Israeli Strikes Go Public: Tel Aviv’s recent precision raids on Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure have crossed a red‑line, prompting Tehran to retaliate with unprecedented direct fire on Israeli cities and the strategically vital Haifa Port.
- Iran’s Energy Artery Hit: Multiple drone and missile attacks on refineries in Bushehr and Abadan have knocked out hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, jolting oil futures and rattling Gulf producers who depend on stable global benchmarks.
- Air Corridors Disrupted: Major carriers—Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways—are rerouting flights around Iranian and Israeli airspace, adding hours of detours and fuelling concerns over aviation safety through the Gulf’s essential air‑traffic crossroads.
Shockwaves Felt Across the Gulf
The conflict’s spill‑over is no longer hypothetical:
- Red Sea Flashpoints: Iran‑aligned Houthi forces in Yemen have broadened their missile attacks, endangering shipping lanes that carry a fifth of the world’s seaborne trade through Bab al‑Mandab.
- Iraqi Militias Mobilise: Tehran‑backed groups are demanding an accelerated exit of U.S. troops—an early warning that Iraq’s fragile political equilibrium may soon tip.
- Energy Markets on Edge: Every GCC finance ministry is recalculating budgets as Brent prices swing violently; while high prices fill coffers, supply shocks and insurance premiums pose grave risks to Gulf exporters’ long‑term stability.
Gaza’s Plight Risks Being Forgotten
With regional attention glued to Tehran and Tel Aviv, Gaza’s humanitarian disaster is sliding off the world’s front pages. Gulf charitable organisations fear donor fatigue and logistical choke‑points will deepen the enclave’s misery if the Iran‑Israel confrontation drags on.
Netanyahu’s Call for Regime Change: A Dangerous Gambit
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s televised appeal for Iranian citizens to topple their rulers landed poorly in Gulf capitals. What many here see as an Israeli shift from “containment” to “regime‑change rhetoric” risks:
- Inflaming Iranian Nationalism: Hard‑liners in Tehran now frame the conflict as an existential battle, complicating fledgling Gulf‑Iran rapprochement efforts.
- Undermining Mediation Channels: UAE‑ and Omani‑led quiet diplomacy relies on keeping dialogue options alive; calls for revolution in Iran imperil those tracks.
G7 in Alberta: Beyond Statements of Concern
The leaders of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan convene this week in Alberta with a packed agenda—AI regulation, green trade corridors, and global inflation. Yet the Iran‑Israel crisis threatens to dominate every sideline meeting. From a Gulf perspective, three concrete steps are essential:
- Leverage Ties to Tel Aviv and Tehran
Washington must restrain its closest Middle East ally, while Paris, Berlin and London revive nuclear‑file diplomacy with Iran. - Back Regional Mediation
Recognise and resource Gulf‑led de‑escalation initiatives—especially those floated by the UAE, Oman, and Qatar—to create face‑saving off‑ramps for both parties. - Reaffirm Red Lines
Declare that deliberate attacks on energy infrastructure, commercial shipping, or civilian aviation will meet coordinated economic and diplomatic consequences.
Multilateralism on Trial
The Gulf’s hydrocarbon lifeline—and by extension, the global economy—cannot weather another protracted regional conflict. If the G7 cannot forge a unified course of action now, faith in collective security may erode beyond repair, emboldening hard‑power adventurism from the Mediterranean to the Strait of Hormuz.
A Shrinking Window for Peace
Time is running out. Every additional strike risks triggering uncontrolled escalation that could reshape the Middle East for decades. The Gulf—geographically proximate, economically exposed, and diplomatically active—calls on the G7 to move from rhetoric to results: broker a ceasefire, revive nuclear talks, and avert a war nobody can afford.
