Jose Raul Capablanca, the Cuban chess genius who dominated the world game in the 1920s, was once asked how many moves ahead he could see. His answer remains one of the most quoted lessons in strategic thinking: “Only one. But it is the right one.”
As Washington considers its next steps in the Gulf’s ongoing energy and security confrontation, that lesson feels especially relevant. The challenge facing the United States is not a lack of military power or diplomatic influence. The real problem is that it may be looking at the wrong move, on the wrong chessboard.
The US-Iran ceasefire reached on April 7 offered a rare moment of strategic opportunity. After weeks of confrontation that pushed Brent crude close to $110 per barrel, oil markets responded positively to the pause in hostilities. Prices gradually retreated, falling below $95 and eventually nearing pre-conflict levels.
For Washington, this was a chance to achieve one of two objectives: secure a longer-term political settlement or strengthen its position before another round of escalation. It appears to have accomplished neither.
The Ceasefire That Solved Little
While the guns temporarily fell silent, the underlying realities of the Gulf energy market remained unchanged.
Global petroleum inventories continued to decline, even if at a slower pace. Export routes remained vulnerable, shipping costs stayed elevated and market confidence never fully recovered. The temporary easing of sanctions allowed Iran to move significant volumes of crude to Asian markets, providing much-needed revenue while preserving its strategic leverage.
At the same time, the United States failed to establish a durable framework capable of reducing future risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The result was predictable. The ceasefire became less a peace agreement and more a pause before the next geopolitical maneuver.
Iran had little reason to accept a situation in which global oil stocks recovered, alternative export routes expanded and its influence over the world’s most important energy chokepoint diminished. The subsequent attacks on regional shipping highlighted just how fragile the arrangement had become.
The Real Battlefield Is Bigger Than Hormuz
Perhaps Washington’s biggest mistake is its continuing tendency to view Gulf tensions almost exclusively through the lens of the Strait of Hormuz.
That is only one board in a much larger game.
The Houthis’ announcement of a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping demonstrated how quickly pressure can migrate from one strategic corridor to another. While the group lacks Iran’s naval capabilities, it possesses enough military capacity to create uncertainty around one of the world’s most important trade routes: the Bab Al Mandeb Strait.
For Gulf producers, this creates a major dilemma.
Saudi Arabia has spent years developing alternatives to Hormuz, relying heavily on its East-West pipeline and Red Sea export infrastructure. Much of that crude ultimately reaches Asian markets through Bab Al Mandeb.
If that route becomes vulnerable, Riyadh’s carefully built contingency plans become far less effective.
Tankers would face longer voyages, higher insurance costs, increased fuel consumption and significant delays. Millions of barrels could become trapped in transit. Global supply chains would experience renewed disruption at a time when markets are already operating with limited spare capacity.
For consumers worldwide, the impact would be immediate.
The US Faces a Resource Problem
The challenge extends beyond oil.
Protecting the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously safeguarding shipping lanes in the Red Sea would place increasing demands on US naval assets, missile defense systems and military logistics.
Each new front requires additional resources.
Each additional deployment stretches capabilities.
Each fresh crisis reduces strategic flexibility.
This does not mean the United States lacks power. Far from it. Washington remains the Gulf’s most influential external security partner. But influence is most effective when it is concentrated. When forces and attention become dispersed across multiple flashpoints, even the strongest player can find itself reacting rather than shaping events.
Storm Clouds Beyond the Gulf
Complicating matters further are developments occurring far from the Middle East.
Continued disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure and export routes have tightened global fuel markets. Supply interruptions elsewhere have amplified pressure on crude and refined products, pushing prices upward at a time when governments are already battling inflation concerns.
Higher oil prices are no longer just a Gulf issue.
They have become a global political issue.
Rising fuel costs affect everything from transportation and manufacturing to consumer confidence and electoral politics. In Washington, where domestic economic concerns frequently shape foreign policy decisions, energy prices are never merely a market statistic.
They are a strategic factor.
Washington’s Strategic Dilemma
The fundamental question facing the United States is whether it fully appreciates how much the geopolitical landscape has changed.
The Gulf is no longer defined solely by naval patrols and military deterrence. Today’s contest involves shipping routes, energy security, insurance markets, strategic reserves, supply chains, proxy actors and economic resilience.
A disruption in Hormuz affects Asia.
A Houthi attack influences European energy security.
Actions in Ukraine reverberate through global fuel markets.
Everything is connected.
That is why focusing exclusively on one challenge can create vulnerabilities elsewhere.
The Clock Is Still Running
The war around Hormuz is far from over, and there is no clear checkmate in sight for either side.
The United States still holds powerful pieces on the board: unmatched military reach, strong Gulf partnerships, diplomatic influence and economic leverage. But possessing powerful pieces is not the same as winning the game.
Capablanca’s wisdom remains relevant a century later. Strategic success is not about seeing every possible outcome. It is about making the right move at the right time.
Today, the Gulf’s energy chessboard is expanding faster than Washington’s strategy appears to be adapting.
And if the US continues to focus on the immediate threat while underestimating the wider game unfolding across the region, it risks discovering that the most important moves were being played elsewhere all along.
